Flights between Australia and Hawaii struggling

[Mattg]

I was having a look at some load factor stats today and noticed that flights to Hawaii have been getting surprisingly and consistently low load factors (percentage of seats filled) in recent months. Three airlines fly between Australia and Hawaii - Qantas, Hawaiian and Jetstar. I can't draw too many conclusions about Hawaii from the Qantas stats as they are mixed in with other USA routes, but Jetstar and Hawaiian only fly to Honolulu in the US so the stats are meaningful.

Hawaiian's flights to Honolulu had these average loads on the outbound and inbound sectors respectively:
April 2015: 58.8%/54.8%
March 2015: 69.5%/53.5%
February 2015: 54%/56%
January 2015: 66.7%/86.9%


And Jetstar (outbound/inbound respectively):
April 2015: 59.7%/70.6%
March 2015: 76.4%/71.6%
February 2015: 68.3%/69.9%
January 2015: 63.4%/86.9%

Obviously there will be a fair bit of seasonal fluctuation but these stats are pretty low compared to previous years. Increased capacity and a weak AUD seems to be having an effect.

 

[smit0847]

Its because the exchange rate is down the toilet

 

[Pushka]

Shame they dont release award tickets. And the prices for J class are eye watering.

 

[Limewood]

Shame they dont release award tickets. And the prices for J class are eye watering.

One would think so, the idea is to fill seats. I get so annoyed trying to book QF J award to HNL and get that JQ J sorry PE award seats.

 

[smit0847]

I just received an email from HA advertising sale fares from SYD for 'only $1000 return'. Are they surprised theyre struggling to fill flights at those prices? You could go to LA for that price.

 

[haydensydney]

I was so interested in Hawaii but the recent slide in the AUD-USD exchange rate has really put a dent in my plans. Don't think i'll bother...

 

[opusman]

HA is an expensive destination, it was only the good exchange rate that made it so attractive to Aussies.

 

[Awesom Andy]

It's about yield as well. And if they're getting the same revenue per pax for a 10 hour flight as a 14 hour flight elsewhere, it's probably not doing too badly.

 

[Mattg]

It's about yield as well. And if they're getting the same revenue per pax for a 10 hour flight as a 14 hour flight elsewhere, it's probably not doing too badly.

I recently booked flights on JQ to HNL for about $450 return. That wasn't a mistake fare, either.

 

[Cool Cat Phil]

Looking at those pax loading stats...... If those were to continue, I suspect capacity on both carriers will be reduced in the near future.

 

[Awesom Andy]

I recently booked flights on JQ to HNL for about $450 return. That wasn't a mistake fare, either.

They must be running a charity then... Well, HNL can only be served with wide bodies so perhaps frequencies will be reduced.

 

[Boca68]

I was having a look at some load factor stats today and noticed that flights to Hawaii have been getting surprisingly and consistently low load factors (percentage of seats filled) in recent months. Three airlines fly between Australia and Hawaii - Qantas, Hawaiian and Jetstar. I can't draw too many conclusions about Hawaii from the Qantas stats as they are mixed in with other USA routes, but Jetstar and Hawaiian only fly to Honolulu in the US so the stats are meaningful.

Hawaiian's flights to Honolulu had these average loads on the outbound and inbound sectors respectively:
April 2015: 58.8%/54.8%
March 2015: 69.5%/53.5%
February 2015: 54%/56%
January 2015: 66.7%/86.9%


And Jetstar (outbound/inbound respectively):
April 2015: 59.7%/70.6%
March 2015: 76.4%/71.6%
February 2015: 68.3%/69.9%
January 2015: 63.4%/86.9%

Obviously there will be a fair bit of seasonal fluctuation but these stats are pretty low compared to previous years. Increased capacity and a weak AUD seems to be having an effect.

Interesting figures. Out of curiousity, where did you get these numbers from?

 

[Mattg]

Interesting figures. Out of curiousity, where did you get these numbers from?

The Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development publishes them.

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/international_airline_activity-monthly_publications.aspx

 

[Boca68]

The Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development publishes them.

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/international_airline_activity-monthly_publications.aspx

thanks Mattg.

 

[straitman]

HNL can only be served with wide bodies so perhaps frequencies will be reduced.

Why? (Fill)

 

[Awesom Andy]

Why? (Fill)

The narrowbody fleet doesn't have the range to do the 5,000 miles trip, based on the quoted maximum fully loaded range.

 

[Mrmaxwell]

We have lost 30% on the currency and certainly have not seen a 30% discount on flights and accommodation. Even last year the airlines were charging more for SYD-HNL than SYD-LAX which is an absolute joke. Of course they charge what the market will bear and when the dollar was trading at US$1.05 the demand was huge.

Having said that the JQ sale fares for $500 return are much better value and help offset the sting of the low dollar once you arrive, however Aussies find much better value in Asia or mainland USA.

 

[Warks]

I hadn't considered it for a long time but with those JQ fares it might make for a more economical trip to Vancouver next time. There must be some pretty good deals with Westjet to Hawaii from YVR. The direct flight with Air Canada from SYD is outrageously expensive for no good reason except that it's a monopoly most of the year. AC is only on a par with Jetstar at best anyway.

 

[RooFlyer]

I hadn't considered it for a long time but with those JQ fares it might make for a more economical trip to Vancouver next time. There must be some pretty good deals with Westjet to Hawaii from YVR. The direct flight with Air Canada from SYD is outrageously expensive for no good reason except that it's a monopoly most of the year. AC is only on a par with Jetstar at best anyway.

A worthy opinion, but I'd certainly disagree. Needing to go to YYC 3-5 times a year for business I have a choice of routes - QF via LAX or DFW; AC via direct to YVR; QF to YVR seasonal service, ANZ to YVR via Auckland etc and I happily choose AC half the time; its a good service both in terms of hard and soft product. Domestically, only Air Canada's LCC Rouge offshoot can be reasonably compared to Jetstar. Air Canada, being a 'legacy' carrier has much the same pros and cons as QF.

Apologies for wandering OT.

 

[Dr Ralph]

Hawaii has always been an expensive place to go compared to the U.S. main land.

Im always amazed at the number of people who tell me that the shopping is so great in Hawaii. These are usually people who haven't been to the main land and don't realise how much cheaper things are there along with much better variety.

Save you money and head to the main land.