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Message: <blockquote data-quote="lovetravellingoz" data-source="post: 2250491" data-attributes="member: 5647">4th CaseSo either a false positive,  or possibly as they say low viral loads he could be a recovering/ed case. If so, he could be from a different outbreak, as a recovering case would be unlikely from the Transport Driver if the theory on his timeline is correct. Or if he is an older case and as there is geographic overlap he could also  pre-date the driver in that transmission chain. (Remember the Camperman who turned out to not be  the first case in his cluster after all).Hopefully enough virus to grow a live virus sample suitable for sequencing to provide more certainty.[ATTACH=full]250638[/ATTACH]With the Driver OutbreakIf the timeline was started with the Freighter flight crew it would seem that time in the community while infectious would not be too long with the first case, and then the known cases from him.As such, I would expect this outbreak to not grow too large as most people that they find if positive possibly may not be infectious as yet.  ie They will chop off the transmission chains.  If infectious the number is as yet still likely to not be too largeThe random factor will be if a super-spreader, or super-spreaders was already sired, that might bubble it along for a bit longer and especially if from a more fleeting contact.  But the odds are against that in such a short timespan "in the wild".  So only say 20% chance that may have happened.ie should be more like the Delta Outbreak In Melbourne (or fewer cases as timeline is briefer) than the Kappa Outbreak which had time to grow.</blockquote>

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