Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

Pushka

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SA just over 2000 positives today and zero deaths. Hospital numbers stable. Marshall pretty much called the peak but when schools return properly on Feb 14 I'd say just a little premature.
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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SA just over 2000 positives today and zero deaths. Hospital numbers stable. Marshall pretty much called the peak but when schools return properly on Feb 14 I'd just a little premature.
My uninformed view is that the Christmas/New Year getaway period is more busy/social than school return. People can still limit their regular interactions.

Edit to add: Victoria were hovering at 1000 in their post-Delta peak, so my random guess is say for Vic its possible the new daily positives will hover about 2000
 
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ethernet

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Capture Ratio's. As RAT kits are not available, sometimes unaffordable, sometimes poorly administered, especially on children - who says numbers are reported are accurate? Especially as some are asymptomatic. Unless there is a baseline control group study - one as no confidence in these numbers.
 

Pushka

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Capture Ratio's. As RAT kits are not available, sometimes unaffordable, sometimes poorly administered, especially on children - who says numbers are reported are accurate? Especially as some are asymptomatic. Unless there is a baseline control group study - one as no confidence in these numbers.
Agree which is why we have to monitor hospital rates. Although in SA it's easy to get two tests as a close contact and if symptomatic the queues for PCR testing are now reasonable. Like less than an hour and less if on appointment.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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My uninformed view is that the Christmas/New Year getaway period is more busy/social than school return. People can still limit their regular interactions.
Agree that mixing is much more in the Christmas/ NYE period.and the type of mixing is more likely to pass on infection too.

However school back means a sudden new mixing will occur of people who had in many cases not been mixing with each for some time, or not at all before, and so you would expect some form of bump in numbers.

The school mixing will include people who have been limiting their interactions.

Hopefully it is just a small bump.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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It just occurs to me that there might be a need for new close contact rules for primary schools.

Unless they mandate masks for primary school aged children, I think the normal practice has been no masks in primary schools. Primary schools - no mask for 6 hours, likely indoors. If one kid gets it, whole classes are out. If one family with two kids in different classes get it, two classes out.

I guess there might be a loophole that its not 6 hours continuous indoors with breaks for recess and lunch - assuming no rain......
 

Pushka

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It just occurs to me that there might be a need for new close contact rules for primary schools.

Unless they mandate masks for primary school aged children, I think the normal practice has been no masks in primary schools. Primary schools - no mask for 6 hours, likely indoors. If one kid gets it, whole classes are out. If one family with two kids in different classes get it, two classes out.

I guess there might be a loophole that its not 6 hours continuous indoors with breaks for recess and lunch - assuming no rain......
In SA the new rules were announced Friday and they are actually good. Children won’t be required to isolate if someone in the class tests positive. Just watch out for symptoms etc. Masks for teachers and I think for all students. No routine testing

Childcare is even better. Same deal if a child tests positive in the center. Watch for symptoms only but continue to attend . Carers tested three times a week and masks for them. Centers won’t close down. This is a great relief as it means that other than actual sickness parents can work as per normal.
 

jakeseven7

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In SA the new rules were announced Friday and they are actually good. Children won’t be required to isolate if someone in the class tests positive. Just watch out for symptoms etc. Masks for teachers and I think for all students. No routine testing

Childcare is even better. Same deal if a child tests positive in the center. Watch for symptoms only but continue to attend . Carers tested three times a week and masks for them. Centers won’t close down. This is a great relief as it means that other than actual sickness parents can work as per normal.

Yes that was always going to be a killer if parents had to work from home (again) to look after kids! Good news.
 

OATEK

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Agree that mixing is much more in the Christmas/ NYE period.and the type of mixing is more likely to pass on infection too.

However school back means a sudden new mixing will occur of people who had in many cases not been mixing with each for some time, or not at all before, and so you would expect some form of bump in numbers.

The school mixing will include people who have been limiting their interactions.

Hopefully it is just a small bump.
My daughter has been mixing with other parents and children from the school throughout the holidays. Sharing the children around, meeting up at the park etc. The families are not really limiting their interactions from what I can see. High school students heading off out together to the beach etc. Maybe some teachers might have managed to remain out of circulation.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Given 4 weeks of school testing in NSW and Vic, it will definitely be a bump in daily figures - you know more testing, more positives (including more asymptomatic positives) and all that.

SA might be on a better path - don't worry until you are sick.
 

lovetravellingoz

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My daughter has been mixing with other parents and children from the school throughout the holidays. Sharing the children around, meeting up at the park etc. The families are not really limiting their interactions from what I can see. High school students heading off out together to the beach etc. Maybe some teachers might have managed to remain out of circulation.
While true it is also the case that:

New students start school for the first time in prep.

Students in year 7 will often be at new schools and in the main drawn from many different primary schools.

A number of students change schools for various reasons.

Over summer kids mainly mix with their close mates. Back in school they mix with the whole class and beyond including those that they do not socialise with.

Many schools will blend year classes each year. So depending on the size of school the class maybe quite different.

For senior years many, if not most, schools teach by subjects, and the form class may only start the day rather than be all day. After that you split by the subjects chosen. So the pool of students mixed with magnifies.

Then add the co_ corricular activities like music, sport, plays etc and you get more mixing again.

Then after that for many secondary students they will go to and from school by public transport thereby not only mixing year levels, but also mixing with multiple schools.

Then add in teachers etc.

So overall I personally believe there will be a lot more mixing of people that are not currently mixing.
 

RooFlyer

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I wonder when the AFL will move Freo and WCE out of WA?

Move them both to TAS...

No! Tas has a bid for its own team in. AFL report on the Tas business case was positive. Perth and Freo can wither with the decision maker.

Tasmania's data. First death in this outbreak. 13 in hospital because of covid.

So, why is this news or even being reported. Seriously.
Very disappointed in Gutwein in ‘announcing’ this. Asymptomatic, detected 2 days prior to death due to facility wide testing. Co morbidities , 90+, Covid not on death certificate. Tas reports hospitalisations because of Covid separately to hospitalisation with Covid. An error of judgement
 

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