Australian state border restrictions

[HappyFlyerFamily]

That's the basic messaging from the government in WA. "People will die". Hard to see how to turn this around, and get the borders opened (at least to some level)

Its not a complete lie - some unvaccinated people will die.

In Australia, we won't refuse medical/hospital treatment for those that choose poorly and this is what smaller Australian jurisdictions are grappling with. They have accepted covid will come in - I feel they are trying to work out their capacity of manageable covid numbers in the context of their ICU capacity. eg does 1000 active cases translate to 20 ICU beds? what is the % of vaccinated travellers that will carry and transmit covid? 10% 20%.... what targeted lockdowns will work to slow the reproductive rate? eg lock out the unvaccinated during an outbreak.

NT and Tas are grappling with these issues. At 90% of 12+, it translates to around 20k and 45k unvaccinated respectively.

Still not sure Qld's position on opening up, but WA wants to be in the caboose to see how opening up all works out in the smaller covid-zero jurisdictions (ie NT, Tas and SA).

 

[MARTINE]

That's the basic messaging from the government in WA. "People will die". Hard to see how to turn this around, and get the borders opened (at least to some level)

They were open a little bit last weekend - to a select few …

 

[nutwood]

Checked the slides - that's where the quote stopped, but he did add
- A model may be the best (according to some criteria) but that doesn't necessarily make it good, or true
- The real question of interest is whether the model is illuminating and useful

My concern is that these models are being used to run the country. Realistically, with something like the spread of a virus, a minor change in an assumption can make a huge difference to the outcome. I listen to the Tasmanian premier solemnly stating how many people will die if he opens the border at 80% and I wonder if he actually believes what he is saying?

 

[nutwood]

On Tassie, I predict the unvaccinated will bunch up and break the rules, just like Hume (Vic) and W'gong. Could it be that NSW will play the +2 weeks for the vaccines to take effect card, now that fedgov is reducing benefits for bludgers? Looks like a rearguard action to stretch it to 1 December.

What rules are they going to break? About the only Covid restriction in Tasmania is the QR check in requirement? There's all sorts of restrictions on businesses but there's no rules that a bunch of unvaccinated people could really break unless they hijack the Spirit and go on a Melbourne pub crawl.

 

[NM]

Oops. Some people didn't read the new rules regarding the Tweed Border Bubble:

Six Argentina players ruled out of Wallabies clash after border breach

Eight members of the Argentinian rugby union squad are denied re-entry into Queensland after taking a day trip to northern New South Wales from their Gold Coast base.

www.abc.net.au

 

[SydneySwan]

Oops. Some people didn't read the new rules regarding the Tweed Border Bubble:

Six Argentina players ruled out of Wallabies clash after border breach

Eight members of the Argentinian rugby union squad are denied re-entry into Queensland after taking a day trip to northern New South Wales from their Gold Coast base.

www.abc.net.au

The Argentinians may have been under the misapprehension that Australia was one country.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

What rules are they going to break? About the only Covid restriction in Tasmania is the QR check in requirement? There's all sorts of restrictions on businesses but there's no rules that a bunch of unvaccinated people could really break unless they hijack the Spirit and go on a Melbourne pub crawl.

I think the rules (ie targetted lockdown) being reimposed after over 12 months of effectively having no rules because Tas goes from covid zero to having some cases - how many will start complying and for how long? Its not State border rules unless you wanted to go to WA.

 

[drron]

My concern is that these models are being used to run the country. Realistically, with something like the spread of a virus, a minor change in an assumption can make a huge difference to the outcome. I listen to the Tasmanian premier solemnly stating how many people will die if he opens the border at 80% and I wonder if he actually believes what he is saying?

I think PG has taken a page out of an AP press release and quoted the worst case scenario with the modelling.So far the Dherty modelling seems to have overestimated the numbers of cases and hospitalisations of the NSW outbreak.
If PG is right and Tasmania gets to double vaccinated rate of 90%.12s by December first the numbers would get no where near those levels.

But just one fact.We are not at 80% vaccinated on the day we reach 80% of people having 2 doses.Fully vaccinated happens 2 weeks later.

 

[moa999]

Vic finally seems to be allowing more people to get border passes, including those in Sydney.

Have an acquaintance who purchased a house in regional Vic to be near their parent. Settled two months ago, all the furniture gone, and has been stuck in Sydney living in a serviced apartment.

Finally got approval this morning after multiple rejections and now has 48hrs to get to Vic with a negative test.
Thankfully they were somewhat expecting it so got tested yesterday.

 

[nutwood]

Well, I just cancelled my upcoming job in Queensland. Contacting the essential traveller people here in Tassie, they could give no assurance one way or the other as to whether we're likely to lock out Queensland, or how much notice might be given for such an announcement.
It's a ridiculous situation. If they made a decision, I could get busy applying for an essential traveller exemption but I can't apply as Queensland is still classified as low risk. I'm thinking they'll probably continue to simply list high risk premises and locations but I'm not prepared to take the chance. As a business operator, I shouldn't have to play roulette.
Interestingly, when I was cancelling my hotel, they told me they had other Tasmanians staying who were cutting their holiday short and heading home as they weren't prepared to take the risk.

 

[Lynda2475]

More thought bubbles about proving vax status to travel domestically

Planning a holiday? You'll need several COVID apps to do it

Australians will need to manage multiple check-in apps if they move between states once borders are open and consent to their medical records being shared every 12 months.

www.abc.net.au

 

[antycbr]

Well, I just cancelled my upcoming job in Queensland. Contacting the essential traveller people here in Tassie, they could give no assurance one way or the other as to whether we're likely to lock out Queensland, or how much notice might be given for such an announcement.
It's a ridiculous situation. If they made a decision, I could get busy applying for an essential traveller exemption but I can't apply as Queensland is still classified as low risk. I'm thinking they'll probably continue to simply list high risk premises and locations but I'm not prepared to take the chance. As a business operator, I shouldn't have to play roulette.
Interestingly, when I was cancelling my hotel, they told me they had other Tasmanians staying who were cutting their holiday short and heading home as they weren't prepared to take the risk.

And there you have it, the problem in a nutshell. Trying to maintain Covid zero comes with enormous sovereign risk for everyone in those states, who are one sneeze away from having their plans thrown into complete chaos.

My sympathies to the airline reservation staff who have to deal with this chaos.

 

[nutwood]

And there you have it, the problem in a nutshell. Trying to maintain Covid zero comes with enormous sovereign risk for everyone in those states, who are one sneeze away from having their plans thrown into complete chaos.

My sympathies to the airline reservation staff who have to deal with this chaos.

Indeed. My trip also encompassed SA. It was only a four day trip all up, but having to cancel the Queensland part made the whole trip unviable. It total I cancelled over $2500 worth of travel.
The reason for cancelling not being that I was concerned about Covid exposure at my destination, rather that my home State would give me no guarantees that I would be able to come home, regardless of my being fully vaccinated, having a documented Covid travel safe plan and being able to provide detailed information about where I'd been and who I contacted.
Ridiculous!

 

[exceladdict]

Yes "People will die" with COVID-19, but many, many, many more will die from other causes.

In 2020 with an unvaccinated population people dying with COVID-19 was the 38th highest cause of death in Australia according to the ABS (Causes of Death, Australia, 2020). The median age of those that died with COVID-19 was 5 years older than the median age people died in 2020 i.e. COVID-19 mainly killed those who had already exceeded life expectancy.

More people died from things like catching the flu, or having an accidental fall than from COVID-19 and we don't close the state borders because of things like that.

Until states like WA come to accept that we will have to live with people dying with COVID-19 they'll keep their borders closed.

Interesting. Last time I looked into excess mortalities, countries such as AU and NZ actually had dips in long term average deaths last year, which makes you wonder how a more restricted society - with less deaths - should be compared in a 'greatest good for the greatest number' type approach to policy. Interestingly, this year, deaths have been above historical average counts every month so far.

It really is like a giant trolley problem, except with millions of people twitter-megaphoning at you while you make every decision.

Short of an outbreak, it's hard to see that mindset changing. Maybe when those people 'over east' are able to travel overseas....

By my read, I think pictures of 'normal life' in other jurisdictions will change WA mindsets more than anything. Generally, people I encounter don't want to go back to the mask wearing, etc that would be imposed if (when) there is (or is a risk of) community spread once again.

They were open a little bit last weekend - to a select few …

I wonder, if they had turned out to be positive, sparked a bunch of cases, and subsequent deaths, if they'd be charged with murder or manslaughter?

 

[Quickstatus]

Premier Peter Gutwein says modelling suggests … nearly 100 deaths within the first six months.

My concern is that these models are being used to run the country. Realistically, with something like the spread of a virus, a minor change in an assumption can make a huge difference to the outcome

What other tool have we got.
There are no other way of predicting an outcome in a system that is basically chaotic. If anyone says they know then they are crystal balling and likely have another agenda

On the other hand NSW health are today allowing elective day surgery to resume. The current gloom and doom spike came in under modelling - as it did last year.
Flatten the curve we did but at what cost?

 

[Danger]

Yes "People will die" with COVID-19, but many, many, many more will die from other causes.

In 2020 with an unvaccinated population people dying with COVID-19 was the 38th highest cause of death in Australia according to the ABS (Causes of Death, Australia, 2020). The median age of those that died with COVID-19 was 5 years older than the median age people died in 2020 i.e. COVID-19 mainly killed those who had already exceeded life expectancy.

More people died from things like catching the flu, or having an accidental fall than from COVID-19 and we don't close the state borders because of things like that.

Until states like WA come to accept that we will have to live with people dying with COVID-19 they'll keep their borders closed.

I'm all for opening borders but I do find these sorts of arguments less than robust. For a decent comparison, we'd need to have data on the sorts of mortality levels that could have been expected if borders remained open. That is to say, what we don't know (although I'm sure there is research) is how many lives were saved by the borders being closed.

 

[nutwood]

What other tool have we got.
There are no other way of predicting an outcome in a system that is basically chaotic. If anyone says they know then they are crystal balling and likely have another agenda

I would suggest honesty?
These models come with a huge degree of error. Any reputable person trying to model a chaotic system would have to be qualifying their conclusions. The qualifications disappear along the way and all the public gets is "100 people going to die".
Coincidentally, this conclusion supports a continuation of emergency powers so the numbers and the rationale behind them will never be tested in parliament. It's all getting very Orwellian!

 

[jakeseven7]

Well National cabinet tomorrow is discussing how they will manage to have domestic borders open for Christmas (LOL). I assume WA will have to have a time out and sit in the virtual hallway for that part?

Anyway I predict the usual ‘agreement’ then they will all run huffing and puffing to Seven Nightly News to screech about how they have to keep <insert state name> safe from <insert covid or another demon state to blame like NSW> or <insert exaggerated lie about how many people will die>.

———

State border controls top of agenda at National Cabinet ahead of Christmas holiday season​

Border restrictions keeping millions of families separated ahead of Christmas will be discussed at national cabinet as states with low COVID cases struggle to vaccinate their constituents in order to lift restrictions in line with the national plan.

All Australians aged 60 and are now able to get Pfizer or Moderna around the country, with 11 million doses of both mRNA vaccines scheduled to arrive in the country in October.

So far, nearly 78 per cent of everyone aged 16 and up has had one dose, and 54.2 per cent of the eligible population is fully vaccinated.

As it happened: Victoria records 1438 new local COVID-19 cases, five deaths; NSW reports 941 new cases, six deaths; Queensland has five new cases

Sydney’s youngest and oldest school children will return to classrooms from October 18, Students in regional Victoria will also begin returning to the classroom from next week.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Quickstatus]

would suggest honesty?

Unrealistic expectations unfortunately. As I said those using modelling may be using it to support an agenda. And there are many sides not just 2.

never be tested in parliament.

Why not. Parliament has been missing.
Executive power should always be tempered by the legislative house.
If emergency powers need to be enacted, the legislative branch should have ultimate jurisdiction with fortnightly assemblies and democratic consent for executive orders to continue.

 

[Ric]

A couple of questions which I cannot find specific answers to....
If I am flying into Melbourne from Greater Sydney in the morning and flying out in the evening back to Sydney, I will need to apply for a Travel Permit from Services Victoria.

1. Question is what category of permit do I apply for? I applied for a Transit permit as it says that the stay is no more than 24 hrs. It was granted almost immediately. I am now worried that I may have applied the wrong one as I am not really transiting to another place?
2. And I do need to do the NSW travel declaration coming back to Sydney?