Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[drron]

once vaccine is across the population i dont want to hear the word cases ever again, its not tracked for anything else, flu for eg ... 302,000 in 2019 ... 58,000 in 2018 and 251,000 in 2017 ... massive swings but honestly did it effect your life at all!?!??!!? and how many more people who had the flu at home and just got on with it without a notification being registered
(812 deaths by the way).

View attachment 255740

It affected mine.In 2017 I got to look after a flu ward.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

It affected mine.In 2017 I got to look after a flu ward.

and hats off to you but did it impact your ability to go out shopping / for a drink / get on a plane?

 

[hb13]

If the borders are going to stay closed forever, as some people want, it will kill Australia economically.

Does government actually have any economists advising them??

NZ's already come out with a plan, and we are still in the dark about what Australia will do. This is just ludicrous.

 

[dajop]

If the borders are going to stay closed forever, as some people want, it will kill Australia economically.

Does government actually have any economists advising them??

NZ's already come out with a plan, and we are still in the dark about what Australia will do. This is just ludicrous.

Australia will rely on everyone to spend 2 weeks in NZ first.

But on a serious note NZ plan at the moment, from what I’ve read, is for NZ citizens and residents to return to NZ (remembering they can leave at any time, at the moment getting back is the difficult piece) but not yet for foreign visitors. I guess that may come at some point.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Australia will rely on everyone to spend 2 weeks in NZ first.

But on a serious note NZ plan at the moment, from what I’ve read, is for NZ citizens and residents to return to NZ (remembering they can leave at any time, at the moment getting back is the difficult piece) but not yet for foreign visitors. I guess that may come at some point.

it will have to, tourism is such a factor, accommodation / hospitality and honestly a feeling that you aren't separated from the rest of the world i think cant be overlooked.

 

[jakeseven7]

If the borders are going to stay closed forever, as some people want, it will kill Australia economically.

Does government actually have any economists advising them??

NZ's already come out with a plan, and we are still in the dark about what Australia will do. This is just ludicrous.

Yes NZ has a ‘plan’ using the same PowerPoint one pager that Australia’s ‘phases’ do. Don’t believe a word of it.

And it has sooooo many levers built in that the NZ government could yank overnight to completely destroy your trip on whim. Anyway off topic really!

 

[jb747]

Something that will affect international flights, but which isn’t covid related, is the fall of Afghanistan. A large percentage of the Asia to Europe traffic flowed that way, and presumably it will be cut off. That will force the use of longer, less fuel efficient routes, and also lead to more crowding, and hence less effficient altitudes on the routes that are used. It has implications for Sunrise in particular.

 

[flyer89]

Something that will affect international flights, but which isn’t covid related, is the fall of Afghanistan. A large percentage of the Asia to Europe traffic flowed that way, and presumably it will be cut off. That will force the use of longer, less fuel efficient routes, and also lead to more crowding, and hence less effficient altitudes on the routes that are used. It has implications for Sunrise in particular.

BOBCAT time if memory serves?

 

[dajop]

Something that will affect international flights, but which isn’t covid related, is the fall of Afghanistan. A large percentage of the Asia to Europe traffic flowed that way, and presumably it will be cut off. That will force the use of longer, less fuel efficient routes, and also lead to more crowding, and hence less effficient altitudes on the routes that are used. It has implications for Sunrise in particular.

Already having implications for the repatriation flights including QF109 on its way to LHR right now.

QF109 (QFA109) Qantas Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware

Track Qantas (QF) #109 flight from Darwin Int'l / RAAF to London Heathrow

flightaware.com

But aren’t the sunrise flights more northerly (at least SYD/LHR)?

 

[twiningb]

Yeah, the NZ plan seems pretty nebulous. It's phrased more affirmatively but is still a blueprint for isolation with no end in sight.

 

[burmans]

Yeah, the NZ plan seems pretty nebulous. It's phrased more affirmatively but is still a blueprint for isolation with no end in sight.

New Zealanders can already leave the country, most are choosing not to but it isn’t the government stopping them.

 

[dajop]

but it isn’t the government stopping them.

Not explicitly anyway.

From what I understand no MIQ places available until early next year, so there are other ways of preventing people leaving. But at least it leaves people to make their own decision about how compelling their need to travel is.

 

[jakeseven7]

New Zealanders can already leave the country, most are choosing not to but it isn’t the government stopping them.

Kind of is though because Q places on return are next to impossible to find and lack of slots mean airline prices are sky high too. Our family had that experience and gave up. So the government just makes it exceedingly hard.

 

[jb747]

BOBCAT time if memory serves?

That was a very strange system. It wasn't a time that was enforced once you became airborne, so you'd get people with Bobcats that were after yours, jumping in front of you whilst taxiing out. I thought it would work better if you were allocated the time when at the end of the runway, but, hey...

Already having implications for the repatriation flights including QF109 on its way to LHR right now.

QF109 (QFA109) Qantas Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware

Track Qantas (QF) #109 flight from Darwin Int'l / RAAF to London Heathrow

flightaware.com

But aren’t the sunrise flights more northerly (at least SYD/LHR)?

View attachment 255789

Going over China is actually the great circle route from Sydney, but flying over China is problematic anyway, as their military owns all of the airspace, and they can be very restrictive with regard to weather avoidance, and altitudes. It would directly affect anything from Perth or Melbourne, but the biggest effect of all would be from other traffic displaced from the Afghan tracks.

 

[dajop]

Going over China is actually the great circle route from Sydney, but flying over China is problematic anyway, as their military owns all of the airspace, and they can be very restrictive with regard to weather avoidance, and altitudes. It would directly affect anything from Perth or Melbourne, but the biggest effect of all would be from other traffic displaced from the Afghan tracks.

If Afghanistan was the only country that you couldn't overfly, I assume it would be less problematic. But throw in Iran, eastern Ukraine, Syria and Iraq then it must be really difficult (SQ 308, yesterday):

 

[burmans]

Kind of is though because Q places on return are next to impossible to find and lack of slots mean airline prices are sky high too. Our family had that experience and gave up. So the government just makes it exceedingly hard.

The complaint though wasn't about whether you can come back, it was about isolation. You can leave the country and (if vaccinated) there are a few places you can go to, that's not isolation. But yes, you may find coming back difficult.

 

[Pushka]

BBC UK is reporting this from NZ

'We cannot keep NZ border restrictions forever'​

New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has said the country's borders will remain closed until at least the end of the year.
She stressed the priority was vaccinating New Zealand's population by the end of 2021, but said from the start of next year visitors would again be allowed in, with quarantine times based on the country they've travelled from.

 

[Princess Fiona]

BBC UK is reporting this from NZ

'We cannot keep NZ border restrictions forever'​

New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has said the country's borders will remain closed until at least the end of the year.
She stressed the priority was vaccinating New Zealand's population by the end of 2021, but said from the start of next year visitors would again be allowed in, with quarantine times based on the country they've travelled from.

Doesn’t fill me with confidence though. The plan still involves HQ for fully vaccinated people.

 

[hb13]

I have a sinking feeling that a lot of countries saying they will relax rules and border restrictions will not do it, even after the vax rollout has surpassed 80%. These leaders saying the country has to live with Covid is one thing, but I imagine seeing hundreds or thousands of cases; even with a vaccinated population will change things very quickly.

Singapore as an example said they will begin to ease things and live with Covid after they have reached 80 or 85% fully jabbed. As of now they've reached 79% (of everyone above 12) and there has been no change whatsoever apart from home quarantine for a select number of residents/citizens from "safe countries". So clearly this is all talk.

It seems like the impossible goal of 0-Covid is what these nations will continue to chase, vaccinated or not, with borders staying shut most likely indefinitely.

 

[dajop]

and there has been no change whatsoever

Wrong. It's gotten worse for travellers from all of Australia

Last year they differentiated it by state - but now one size fits all. Thank you Delta. So someone traveling from Perth to Singapore will be stuck at home or inside a hotel for 2 weeks.