Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[oznflfan]

I don’t have the same cabin fever as many as I’ve been able to keep flying between Canberra and Japan and have antibodies to show for it.

But when it comes to a timeframe? Think about how hard it is to get into Australia now. Think about the backlog that still needs to be cleared. Think about the risk tolerance levels your government has adopted. Then try to imagine a world where you’re confident of just cruising through the airport upon return.

Australia as a nation won’t open up before a WHO declaration. And they won’t do it immediately even then. What you say about WA now is what people will be saying about Australia then.

Then you have the minor logistical issues such as “How many airlines will be viable as of then?”

Just hopping on a plane for a week or so overseas? Not happening any time soon.

You have valid points, but you are making me sad.

Best case for me Sept 2021, worst case July 2022.

 

[trevella]

You have valid points, but you are making me sad.

Best case for me Sept 2021, worst case July 2022.

I’m not happy about it either, as I have zero family where I happen to be working.

But everything I’ve seen suggests that people won’t be entering Australia freely until 2022, or perhaps a chosen few miraculously before Christmas 2021.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Well no. Not sure what’s “first hand” from the nursing fraternity nor the statement below. But again, sorry if the truth doesn’t suit the narrative you’re pushing.

Nurses and doctors in Melbourne reported they were exhausted and stretched to the limit during the last outbreak. A doctor posting on AFF confirmed they had also been told this, as per their quote. This was a staff issue, not physical beds.

But in the lockdown everybody was prohibited to go to those things.
Now residents in some nursing homes are being allowed out but they and anyone with them must wear a mask.

Some people are suggesting a two-tiered system where those in aged care continue to be in lockdown or shielded while the rest of the population is free to carry on with little or no restriction. It's that concept that sits a little uneasily with me... not much fun for the elderly to have to give up their life while others are free to be out enjoying themselves.

 

[N860CR]

Nurses and doctors in Melbourne reported they were exhausted and stretched to the limit during the last outbreak. A doctor posting on AFF confirmed they had also been told this, as per their quote. This was a staff issue, not physical beds.

Yep. That’s called a pandemic

Remind me to go crying to the media next time I’m a little tired at work.

 

[ayushamity]

Since nothing is happening on the borders front (not even travel bubbles with safe countries next year that we were promised), lets spice things up and start betting on when Australia will announce the 3 month extension till 17 March

I am going for 3 Dec announcement. Who's in!

 

[andye]

Yep. That’s called a pandemic

Remind me to go crying to the media next time I’m a little tired at work.

Wow. Their exhaustedness will have little to do with sleep deprivation or physical exertion

 

[ayushamity]

Also, how tragic would it be if people from USA and UK are allowed in after they get vaccinated whereas we are still banned from leaving.

Both USA and UK are going for vaccinations to their entire population by April next year. Whereas by April, we will just be starting. So its quite feasible that overseas tourists can enter vaccinated whereas we aren't allowed to leave yet.

I personally feel that if infection rates significantly come down overseas due to the vaccine being administered before Australia, the gov needs to re evaluate the need for travel being dependent on Australians getting a vaccine.

 

[oznflfan]

Also, how tragic would it be if people from USA and UK are allowed in after they get vaccinated whereas we are still banned from leaving.

Both USA and UK are going for vaccinations to their entire population by April next year. Whereas by April, we will just be starting. So its quite feasible that overseas tourists can enter vaccinated whereas we aren't allowed to leave yet.

I personally feel that if infection rates significantly come down overseas due to the vaccine being administered before Australia, the gov needs to re evaluate the need for travel being dependent on Australians getting a vaccine.

Agree, USA and UK will start vaccination programs well before us. They are in box seat for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines too. We have hedged our bets on AstraZeneca, and that is going back to limited trials. I think as long as results come back a bit better, that is what we will use.

I don't think Scomo will allow even vaccinated tourists into Australia prior to letter vaccinated citizens out though.

And vaccine is king in 2021, he won't even consider any travel without it (maybe NZ though).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I don’t have the same cabin fever as many as I’ve been able to keep flying between Canberra and Japan and have antibodies to show for it.

But when it comes to a timeframe? Think about how hard it is to get into Australia now. Think about the backlog that still needs to be cleared. Think about the risk tolerance levels your government has adopted. Then try to imagine a world where you’re confident of just cruising through the airport upon return.

Australia as a nation won’t open up before a WHO declaration. And they won’t do it immediately even then. What you say about WA now is what people will be saying about Australia then.

Then you have the minor logistical issues such as “How many airlines will be viable as of then?”

Just hopping on a plane for a week or so overseas? Not happening any time soon.

Have I understood you correctly that your reading of the tea leaves is that an Australian Government won't necessarily allow vaccinated people in quarantine free?

A line of thinking is that Aussies stuck overseas could come back quarantine free by being vaccinated. Would this not clear the backlog?

No airline, no problem......We have Qantas - Australia's national carrier ....lol

 

[RAM]

One thing for certain - Astra Zeneca/Oxford University's almost Monty Pythonesque 'announcement' & ensuing revelations have not helped bring forward the date we're going to be let out of Australia.

Bloomberg TV yesterday afternoon showed a graphic which was used as the centrepiece for the segment.

It showed six different countries or Groups (EU) and their advance purchases or commitments for purchasing vaccines from the so-called frontrunners.

Without coming out and saying it, the graph told the story. Astra Zeneca has around 4 to 5x the commitments, if successful, to provide vaccine doses numbering 2-3 billion. If they're seen to be lagging (which Bloomberg detailed they are) then they could miss out on $30 to 50 billion in sales.-

The implication was that AZ was concerned about being left behind so they selectively reported a small proportion of the data from Phase II trial component of a combined Phase II/Phase III trial, and then only detailed an even smaller proportion.

Given the huge negative impact this could have on public confidence on all vaccines - the WHO has come out overnight 'diplomatically' dealing with the 'unusual' situation of AZ.

Meanwhile the UK is reassessing how to rollout one of the competitors;

Hospitals in England told to prepare for Covid vaccine rollout in 10 days' time

Exclusive: NHS could receive first deliveries of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as soon as 7 December

www.theguardian.com

But the nature of the Pfizer vaccine appears to have forced a rethink of who gets it first. Its composition means it should be moved only a limited number of times, experts believe, and as such it cannot easily be transported by healthcare staff such as GPs to care homes and older people’s private residences.

NHS officials believe that if it is moved more than four times it risks becoming unstable and ineffective. By the time it reaches UK hospitals, it will have been moved twice, from the Pfizer production plant in Belgium to storage hubs in Britain, and from those hubs to hospitals where it can be administered.
&
One NHS official said the differences in the composition and potential availability of the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines meant the initial rollout “could be stop-start”, with a gap of weeks or even months between frontline health personnel and other priority groups being immunised.

The New Scientist provides a good summary of the AZ/Oxford issues.

Do Oxford/AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine results stand up to scrutiny?

Doubts have been raised over the positive results released earlier this week by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford from trials of their coronavirus vaccine. Here's what you need to know

www.newscientist.com

Makes the extension of international border restrictions to March 17 look likely. Perhaps when they were saying they'd look to open up by Easter they meant Easter 2021!

 

[ayushamity]

Oxford Covid vaccine: Regulator asked to assess jab

The referral is "a significant first step" to a possible rollout of the vaccine, the government says.

www.bbc.com

Another example of how fast UK is moving compared to Australia.

Even though actual Oxford efficacy is 70% (proven only - the 90% is going back to trials for validation), UK is planning to approve it in December so that they can start on both Pfizer and Oxford at same time.

USA will wait for the Oxford US trial results first (still onging) but they are looking good for Dec 10 approval for Pfizer and Moderna.

Cmon Australia. Get your act together. Getting outplayed by other nations. Bit embarrassing really

Heck. Even India is planning on starting Oxford mass vaccinations by January !

One feels that other nations who have also contained the virus and are scared of letting it in (Vietnam, Thailand etc) will actually look to open if infection rates drop overseas because of vaccine.

Whereas, Australia will only open when politics allows it. Nevermind the actual health risk or infection rates.

I am hopeful of infection rates start dropping by say Feb/March of next year as a result of vaccines but not hopeful that will result in any change to the Australian policy as it is not health driven.

 

[auriga]

Another example of how fast UK is moving compared to Australia.

Even though actual Oxford efficacy is 70% (proven only - the 90% is going back to trials for validation), UK is planning to approve it in December so that they can start on both Pfizer and Oxford at same time.

USA will wait for the Oxford US trial results first (still onging) but they are looking good for Dec 10 approval for Pfizer and Moderna.

The situation in the UK, US and India are a lot more desperate compared to us here.
So it is understandable for them to throw caution to the wind.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

The situation in the UK, US and India are a lot more desperate compared to us here.
So it is understandable for them to throw caution to the wind.

its not caution its ineptitude, there is nothing else that will be learned between mid jan and march first, other than if scomo goes on his travels again and learns how to plan a mass vaccination

 

[dajop]

It’s not ineptitude it’s Australia’s place in the world. At the end of the day these vaccines are not charity, they are commercial ventures. I’ve worked for multinational corporations for years. Most of them view Australia as a cash cow to milk with older products. For new products you go with the biggest markets. So as much as we like to think Australia is important - Europe, US, Japan, the Indian middle class, even Canada are all bigger markets. Even Mexico and a Brazil. It’s more a matter or waiting our turn. A matter of economics.

 

[jgreenspoon]

I don’t understand the above argument.
I thought we’d already bought 30 million doses so the marketing or cash cow thing is irrelevant

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

It’s not ineptitude it’s Australia’s place in the world. At the end of the day these vaccines are not charity, they are commercial ventures. I’ve worked for multinational corporations for years. Most of them view Australia as a cash cow to milk with older products. For new products you go with the biggest markets. So as much as we like to think Australia is important - Europe, US, Japan, the Indian middle class, even Canada are all bigger markets. Even Mexico and a Brazil. It’s more a matter or waiting our turn. A matter of economics.

Disagree, clearly there was ground to make the agreement to produce it in country where places like Canada dont even have the capacity to do so. needed to do that earlier and more aggressively and push the need for the uk to have agreements with brexit looming.

if anything its an over reliance on trade with china which has lead to some isolation but the main problem is the 'shut the door and keep everyone out' approach which is why we havent learn to deal with it.

state of origin 49,000 in a 52,000 stadium, skyfire an open air fireworks show in 5 months from now, cancelled due to covid of which basically doesnt exist in canberra. rules are all over the place, not a multinational attitude thing, its short sightedness

 

[drron]

But we are already producing the Oxford vaccine through CSL who will also produce the UQ vaccine if it passes it's trials.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

... but the main problem is the 'shut the door and keep everyone out' approach which is why we havent learn to deal with it.

Sweden tried to 'deal with it' in their own special way.. that failed. The US had another way, that also failed. The UK, Europe... also failed. States that closed their borders have had more success... Taiwan, New Zealand, etc.

I think it's come down to a resourcing issue... we don't have the quarantine space to manage large numbers of people wanting to come in and out. Our expertise in managing quarantine is improving, but not without learnings from the Ruby Princess, Victoria and South Australia.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Sweden tried to 'deal with it' in their own special way.. that failed. The US had another way, that also failed. The UK, Europe... also failed. States that closed their borders have had more success... Taiwan, New Zealand, etc.

I think it's come down to a resourcing issue... we don't have the quarantine space to manage large numbers of people wanting to come in and out. Our expertise in managing quarantine is improving, but not without learnings from the Ruby Princess, Victoria and South Australia.

if a vaccine hadnt worked the amount of natural immunity in sweden compared to us? Would have us and NZ talking to each other and watching the rest of the world through youtube till the end of time. We put all bets on a vaccine, sorry scratch that we should have put all bets on a vaccine but instead umm'd and arr'd and went the path of needing a vaccine but not securing access to one with the rest of the world

 

[MEL_Traveller]

if a vaccine hadnt worked the amount of natural immunity in sweden compared to us? Would have us and NZ talking to each other and watching the rest of the world through youtube till the end of time. We put all bets on a vaccine, sorry scratch that we should have put all bets on a vaccine but instead umm'd and arr'd and went the path of needing a vaccine but not securing access to one with the rest of the world

Apparently 'herd immunity' is only around 15% according to the article in today's ABC (online version).

Figures for Sweden (from that article):

There have been 225,560 cases of coronavirus in Sweden, a country of 10 million, and 6,500 people have died.​

​

For comparison, there have been 27,854 cases and 907 deaths in Australia, which has a population of 25 million.​

​

'Caught up in their own bullshit': The cost of Sweden's controversial coronavirus strategy

Sweden's idea of not following conventional coronavirus measures led to a death rate triple that of its neighbours, and even though a vaccine could be close, the country may need the kind of measures it tried to avoid throughout the pandemic.

www.abc.net.au