A380 Production Sadness

[Quickstatus]

Airlines with high turnover are doing it because they're based in countries with tax systems that allow it and it avoids the expense of an overhaul, the fact that pax feel the plane is "new" is simply gravy as far as those airlines are concerned.

Even QF aircraft leases are via related companies and trusts in overseas jurisdictions.

 

[ozimax]

Never did overly like the A380. I have flown on them often but I remember back to my first ever flight on an A380 SYD-LAX. The finish was third world. Door panels held together with duct tape. Seats not working. Still, it's a relatively quiet plane and enjoyable enough. I still pine for the 727...

 

[JohnK]

I wonder why there are no Las Vegas style slot machines installed on any A380s.

They should be able to easily install slot machines on the seat back IFE.

 

[casanovawa]

The DC1011 was a lovely plane too but it is gone. The 777 is doing better than the A380 at the moment for passengers and freight and the market is now moving to the A350 and the 787.

Never got to fly in the DC 10, the Lockheed L1011 or the DC1011...

Was looking the other day to see if any are still flying but i think i missed out permanently as didn't start my more regular frequent flying till a bit more recently (2008 or so)......

 

[cove]

The DC10 had a few goes at landing short of any runways......

 

[BAM1748]

Never did overly like the A380. I have flown on them often but I remember back to my first ever flight on an A380 SYD-LAX. The finish was third world. Door panels held together with duct tape. Seats not working. Still, it's a relatively quiet plane and enjoyable enough. I still pine for the 727...

Me as well, they look hideous front on, and what's with the floor at the first exit upstairs on the right being so hot during travel that it becomes hard to stand there without shoes. Before anyone puts me In the uncouth forum I was in my socks stretching my legs in the middle of the night.

 

[BAM1748]

A bit of everything, they originally designed it as a freighter for the US military, when the military designed to go with another design the decided to continue building the 747 as a pax plane. They however believed that super sonic transport was the way of the future so they weren't expecting to sell more than a couple of hundred before the SST's took over. So they designed the pax version so it could easily be turned into a freighter when SST became mainstream as they figured freight could probably still travel at sub-sonic speeds and turn a profit.

Of course SST's never became main stream and the rest is history.

Of course the A380 never had this sort of foresight as they assumed the future of pax transport belonged to the heavies, as the 747 was the popular choice at the time.

I think Pan Am pushed Boeing along as being only an international carrier they were desperate for a big long distance aircraft to knock the compitition for six. Hence they had the first ones and indeed the very first was theirs and ended its life in the Tenerife accident.

 

[Limewood]

Have done J in most many times 380, 777 and 747, the latter was my favourite up there in the bubble, no barn there, very cosy with 18 seats, lots of storage, seats were Mk11, so much room, had one loo just for our crowd and and two Qantas FA's for brilliant service, Bose headphones on, drink in hand and then a nice feed and good snoose...

 

[Jeffrey O'Neill]

It'd be interesting to see with the new routes being opened up how the hub model is working these days? For an end of line country like Australia having smaller aircraft that are viable for direct routes seems like a better future than large 1+ stop flights, though I'm not sold on 17 hours non stop in the seating most airlines are currently offering.

At the end of the day the economics and consumer choice at various price points will determine how much the hub model continues to work.

Personally I think the ME3 need to be a bit worried, especially if the 777X meets the economics being touted by Boeing.

 

[dajop]

For an end of line country like Australia having smaller aircraft that are viable for direct routes seems like a better future than large 1+ stop flights, though I'm not sold on 17 hours non stop in the seating most airlines are currently offering.

Will be interesting to see what happens on the long direct flights when the price of fuel goes up again.

 

[moa999]

Will be interesting to see what happens on the long direct flights when the price of fuel goes up again.

Can just go back to adding an intermediate stop.

Remember that bulk of aircraft aren't used anywhere near their range limits

 

[Jeffrey O'Neill]

Will be interesting to see what happens on the long direct flights when the price of fuel goes up again.

not sure. My suspicion is that without a major event in the middle east that oil prices are capped by the cost of US shale oil which has gotten break even costs down below 50 USD, and any spike in oil from a crisis would see a quick increase in shale production. If new tech continues to improve well productivity you could see an increase from the 2016 rate of 750kboe to 1.3Mboe by the early 2020s.

The advantage of shale oil is capacity can be increased relatively quickly, with lower risk since you're not investing billions in a single project.

 

[Flying Fox]

Just a thought. The ME3 have connections to OPEC and if they see the direct flights are causing their hubs to be bypassed, they could influence OPEC to decrease production, hence increase oil prices and then the long haul flights will become uneconomical again.

 

[TheBOSman]

not sure. My suspicion is that without a major event in the middle east that oil prices are capped by the cost of US shale oil which has gotten break even costs down below 50 USD, and any spike in oil from a crisis would see a quick increase in shale production. If new tech continues to improve well productivity you could see an increase from the 2016 rate of 750kboe to 1.3Mboe by the early 2020s.

The advantage of shale oil is capacity can be increased relatively quickly, with lower risk since you're not investing billions in a single project.

There's a lot of shale oil development here in Texas, both already done and in development, that is simply waiting for oil prices to increase to begin production.

Also, the longer oil stays not super expensive, the more progress is made in reducing the costs of other forms of energy production (solar, wind, etc.) and many of them still have more room to drop in cost than oil production does. As well, the uptake in electric vehicles and other propulsion alternatives to gasoline/petrol/diesel will increase as time goes on. And, while people here in LOTFAP are back to loading up on the big trucks and SUVs again now that fuel prices haven't been painful for a few years, any sort of new price spike will chase many back to the smaller sedans and hybrid vehicles, which will again lower demand and lower prices eventually.

Disclaimer: This poster drives a Prius and doesn't break 10,000 km per year at this point. So the price of gas could double tomorrow and it wouldn't affect me much . I fill my car once every 2-3 weeks, and it is only a 10 gallon tank.

 

[Jeffrey O'Neill]

Just a thought. The ME3 have connections to OPEC and if they see the direct flights are causing their hubs to be bypassed, they could influence OPEC to decrease production, hence increase oil prices and then the long haul flights will become uneconomical again.

OPEC + Russia have been trying this and it's not been terribly successful. The Saudis have gave up their role as price setter (swing producer) to the USA. The problem faced by OPEC is that shale oil in the USA is constantly lowering costs. It uses repeated processes across thousands of individual wells. There is constant appetite to refine these processes, unlike the conservatism in conventional oil’s mega-projects, which take 4-7 years, where billions of dollars can be jeopardised by just one fault. Most importantly, continuous processes are easier to digitise, data-mine and optimise:

x One study looked back at 800 unconventional wells in the Permian basin’s Wolfcamp shale. 90% used one or more data technique to diagnose successes and failures in the hydraulic fracturing process, to improve the process in the future.

x Another study used drill-cutting data to optimise fracturing along a Wolfcamp shale well. As a result, production improved 60% compared to an offset well.

60% of the costs are fixed, which means per-barrel costs will be easily deflated by raising ultimate recoveries per well. Currently well are achieving 750kboe, which can improve to 1.3Mboe by the early 2020s through various technologies currently being introduced or being analysed.

If anything, the help that the ME3 get from not paying tax, interest free loans, to Govt financing of building mega airports that charge below cost landing fees will have to be reduced as oil revenue causes those Govts to cut back on spending.

 

[Flying Fox]

Interesting article about the first retired A380.

The first Airbus superjumbo to exit service will be stored minus its engines at a French airfieldas its owner seeks a new operator for a plane that while still relatively young in industry terms has fallen out of favour with airlines.

SQ used to pay $1.7M USD/month to lease this one A380.

 

[mannej]

I think Pan Am pushed Boeing along as being only an international carrier they were desperate for a big long distance aircraft to knock the compitition for six. Hence they had the first ones and indeed the very first was theirs and ended its life in the Tenerife accident.

The very first 747 is on display in the Museum of Flight in Seattle is it not?

I believe the aircraft involved in Tenerife was line number 11, N736PA

 

[BAM1748]

The very first 747 is on display in the Museum of Flight in Seattle is it not?

I believe the aircraft involved in Tenerife was line number 11, N736PA

Ues I was thinking the first in commercial pax service. I don't know specifically what number it was.

These days doctor Google would no doubt reveal the answer.

Cheers

 

[Himeno]

747 1 is preserved at the Museum of Flight at Boeing Field.
The first Pan Am 747 was the 11th built. The Iran Airforce got 3 747s before Pan Am

 

[BAM1748]

747 1 is preserved at the Museum of Flight at Boeing Field.
The first Pan Am 747 was the 11th built. The Iran Airforce got 3 747s before Pan Am

They were friends once, probably still fly them....