Cattle class syndrome is is never fun

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- 14th March 2014, 10:24 AMmarkire: MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement
- 14th March 2014, 10:25 AMQF WPre: MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement
It could. Another that was reviewed on the Ch7 documentary last night was industrial espionage - because there were 15 people from the same Chinese company returning from a Conference in Malaysia. Actually,

**this story**says it's 20 from Freescale, the company mentioned in the Ch7 story - but other pax mentioned in the story mean that more questions are raised.

I've given up trying to work all the commutations and permutations of the event. I'll switch back on when they have found the plane and black boxes. - 14th March 2014, 10:43 AMdocjamesre: MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement
Typically when choosing between a conspiracy and a stuff up, doesn't the stuff up typically win?

- 14th March 2014, 10:44 AMmarkis10re: MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement
- 14th March 2014, 10:44 AMQF WPre: MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement
Look, I even found another story that I haven't seen reported here previously:

How a math equation could solve the Malaysia Airline mystery - Yahoo!7

Wow, which maths genius wants to try and explain that theorem to us. - 14th March 2014, 10:45 AMdocjamesre: MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement
- 14th March 2014, 10:59 AMamaroore: MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement
I'll admit I had one foot in the cover-up camp......both are now firmly planted in the incompetent tent Missing Malaysia Airlines flight puts rare spotlight of scrutiny on leaders

- 14th March 2014, 11:02 AManat0lre: MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement
I don't know too much about Bayesian Theory, but it's probability based, not definitive, viz. the answer out of the math would be "the plane is most likely around here", not "the plane is located exactly here". It would likely only yield an academic approximation of what everyone (except for those whose technique is throwing a dart randomly at a map) is proposing right now; likely only better than current if one can brand the current attempts as haphazard.

- 14th March 2014, 11:19 AMmedheadMH 777 missing - Mh370 media statement
That's relatively easy, if I understand the story. Just uses available info to determine the probability of the aircraft being in any particular area for a particular scenario. For example the scenario that it fell out of the sky immediately that contact was lost would have a probability distribution that shows very high probability in a narrow corridor along the direction of travel out for, say, 50km, with low probability elsewhere.

It sounds like they develop similar probability distributions for all scenarios based on the available information. Then combine them to develop an overall distribution for all possible scenarios. That should then give them a few hot spots to check.

We've seen about 16 options so far combining all those might spit out 100 square km in Nepal as high probability.

Basically that evil statistics thing. - 14th March 2014, 11:31 AMDrAre: MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement
Huh. I can explain this one.

Bayes' Theorem basically looks at probabilities of an event occurring. A simplified explanation is that you calculate the probability of an event occurring at random (prior probability), and then calculate the probability of an event occurring given a particular particular circumstance (conditional probability). Update the prior probability using the conditional probabilities for a bunch of different circumstances to generate a posterior probability. And that's the probability of the event occurring given a set of circumstances.

We use this in geology, but it's also used in medical diagnosis (what's the probability of the patient having [x] given the following set of symptoms).

In this case it would be "what's the probability of finding the plane [here] given [these events]". If I actually had access to the data that the government has, I could run a full simulation in a couple of hours.

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